The Federal Reserve Bank is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at its meeting on Wednesday, maintaining the same cautious posture it has assumed throughout the first half of 2025.
That’s according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which as of June 18, 2025, shows a likelihood of 99.9% that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate at its current range of 4.25% to 4.5%. CME Group is the parent company of the Chicago Board of Trade and other exchanges.
The benchmark interest rate has been at its current range since December.
The Fed has held off on cutting rates since President Trump took office, citing uncertainty around the potential impact of President Trump’s tariffs. Mr. Trump, meanwhile, has been publicly urging the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, most recently this month, after a new employment report showed job creation slowed in May.
Keeping the rate unchanged would signal ongoing caution from the Fed as it continues to monitor how Mr. Trump’s economic policies will play out.
“Recent Fed commentary has reinforced a wait-and-see approach, with officials signaling little urgency to adjust policy amid increased uncertainty around the economic outlook,” EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco said in a research note.
While consumer sentiment has improved somewhat, the uncertainty brought on by the president’s tariffs hasn’t fully faded. The inflation rate also ticked up slightly in May to 2.4%, compared with 2.3% in April. Despite weakening numbers, the labor market continues to hold up, with payroll gains exceeding economists’ expectations last month.
“The current data do not support that theory that prices are rising or that the labor market is weakening quickly,” said Brian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management in an email to CBS MoneyWatch.
Here’s what to know about the Fed’s next meeting.
What date is the Fed’s next meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee — the 12-member group that sets rate decisions — will meet on June 17-18. The FOMC’s decision will be announced on Wednesday, the second day of the meeting.
What time is the Fed rate announcement?
The Fed will share the rate decision at 2 p.m. EST on June 18. Powell will then discuss the committee’s decision at a press conference scheduled for 2:30 p.m. that same day.
The meeting will also include an economic forecast that touches on how interest rates are expected to change in coming years.
One thing to watch will be whether the decision is unanimous, or if there is any dissent from voting members, said Mulberry. A divided decision would mark a shift from May’s meeting, when all 12 members voted to hold the benchmark rate steady.
“Some members have been expressing concerns about slowing growth, although very slightly, and that should be debated heavily as a driver to cut rates sooner rather than continuing to pause,” he said in an email.
What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?
Not likely. Echoing CME’s data, economist polled by FactSet predict a 97.5% probability the Fed will maintain its benchmark rate at its current range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
“There is a tendency to romanticize the idea of interest rates coming down, but with the economy chugging along and a lot of uncertainty about what happens with inflation, there is nothing compelling the Fed to cut interest rates right now,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate, in an email.
The last time the Fed made a reduction was in December 2024, when it slashed rates by 0.25 percentage points.
What does the Fed’s decision mean for your money?
While the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady may be unwelcome news for the nation’s borrowers, it would bode well for savers who benefit from higher interest rates. Schulz said now is to the time for people to shop for high-yield savings accounts or to lock in CD rates. “Those returns aren’t as high as they were a year ago, but they’re still really strong,” he said in an email.
The moment could also be ripe for paying down high-cost credit card debt and padding your emergency savings, said McBride.
If the Fed holds steady, Americans can expect credit card rates, auto loans and mortgages to remain high. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently hovering around 7% while credit card rates have skyrocketed to over 20%.
But that’s not to say that a rate cute would necessarily bring down borrowing rates for homebuyers, said Matt Schulz, chief consumer finance analyst for LendingTree, in a research note.
“Even a Fed rate cut isn’t a guarantee that mortgage rates would fall, since the Fed doesn’t impact mortgage rates as directly as it does credit cards,” said Schulz. “However, the Fed does impact rates indirectly, so a rate cut, whenever it eventually arrives, would likely be a hopeful signal for shoppers.”
