Corporate leaders’ outlook for the U.S. economy is improving, with most CEOs saying they do not expect a recession this year, a new survey shows.
The June poll of 277 CEOs by Chief Executive found that 28% of business leaders expect a recession in the near term — that’s down from 46% in May. In April, when President Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on scores of countries around the world, 62% of CEOs told the organization they were expecting a downturn in the coming months.
Recessions are notoriously hard to predict, but are generally marked by rising unemployment and a significant decline in economic activity across multiple sectors. Since 1929, there have been 14 recessionary periods in the U.S. The most recent recession lasted two months, from February to April 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, CEOs are optimistic that the Trump administration will negotiate trade deals that mitigate the impact of tariffs, according to the Chief Executive survey.
“Business conditions are likely to improve as trade war calms down and interest rates are reduced,” Michael Araten, CEO of Rodon Group, a midsized plastics injection molding company, said in a statement.
According to the survey, 36% of CEOs expect mild economic growth this year, up from 25% in May, while 6% think the economy will display strong growth.
The nation’s gross domestic product — the total value of products and services — shrank at a 0.3% annual rate, down from growth of 2.4% in the final three months of 2024. The slump raised concerns the U.S. could be headed toward a recession, or even a period of “stagflation” — when economic growth slows as inflation rises.
But more recent measures of monthly job growth, consumer spending, industrial production and other metrics show the economy is holding up, with few signs of a recession on the horizon.
That could change if tariff-driven inflation were to surge in the months ahead, with the Department of Labor scheduled on Wednesday to release its latest readout on prices around the U.S.
